Will Google Anti-Trust Case Kill Mozilla ?

On August 5, 2024, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta made headlines by stating:

“Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly.”

This historic ruling against tech giant Google targeting its dominance in online search and advertising could sound like great news for its competitors and a big step toward a more competitive, user-focused web experience.

The biggest losers here? Obviously, Google itself, but also Apple, which has been earning ~20 of billions of dollars per year since 2021 to keep Google as the default search engine in Safari [1]. To put that in context, Apple’s net sales in 2021 were around $366 billion, so while the Google deal isn't its primary revenue stream, it’s still a sizable chunk, even for a trillion-dollar company.

But the most surprising collateral damage of this ruling might be the Mozilla Foundation.

While the Firefox-Google deal was worth "only" $510 million, in 2021-2022, that accounted for over 85% of Mozilla’s revenue. Unlike Apple, Mozilla doesn’t have iPhones, Macs, or an App Store to fall back on. It relies almost entirely on this partnership to fund development of its open-source browser.

In this article, I want to introduce you to Mozilla, its work, its current situation, and how it's navigating a new world shaped by the Google antitrust ruling and the rise of AI-powered browsers and search engines.

What is Mozilla 🦊 doing, and why is it such an amazing part of the open-source world?

At its core, the Mozilla Foundation is a non profit dedicated to keeping the internet open, accessible, and user-first [2]. It’s most famous for Firefox [3], the open-source web browser that’s been pushing back against Google Chrome’s dominance for years. But Mozilla is much more than just a browser.

Mozilla builds tools and technologies that prioritize privacy, transparency, and openness over ad revenue and data collection. From developing privacy-preserving features in Firefox (like Enhanced Tracking Protection and Total Cookie Protection), to funding ethical tech experiments through Mozilla Ventures, to fighting misinformation and advocating for net neutrality.

Why it matters:

• Firefox is one of the only major browsers not based on Chromium, offering real competition and choice on the web.
• Mozilla’s development is community-driven, transparent, and free from the control of corporate shareholders.
• Its focus on user rights makes it a rare and essential voice in a world where surveillance capitalism has become the norm.
• Mozilla is a major player in the open-source software ecosystem (Firefox, TTS, DeepSpeech, Pdf.js, ...) and you know how much we love those kinds of actors around here.

In my opinion, in a tech ecosystem increasingly dominated by mega-corps chasing growth at any cost, Mozilla represents the best version of what open-source can be: principled, transparent, and fiercely committed to the public good.

Ruling is almost one year old, what changed ?

Although the ruling is already a year old, its full impact will take years to materialize. Google has appealed the decision, and the case may undergo several rounds of litigation, potentially reaching the Supreme Court. During this period, Google is expected to continue many of its current practices until a final resolution is reached [4].

Nonetheless, Google has begun the process of complying with the court’s orders, which focus on revising or terminating its exclusive default search agreements with device manufacturers and browser developers. The goal is to open the market to competitors like Bing and DuckDuckGo, making it easier for them to gain visibility and negotiate for default placement.

Which future for Mozilla ?

In 2021, shortly after the beginning of the trial, Mozilla reportedly explored new monetization options by attempting to replace Google with Bing (Microsoft) as the default search engine [5]. However, monetizing Bing proved to be significantly less profitable than using Google.

During the trial, Judge Amit Mehta asked Eric Muhlheim, Mozilla’s Chief Financial Officer, whether Mozilla would benefit from the emergence of another search provider capable of matching Google’s quality and revenue potential.
“If we were suddenly in that world,” Muhlheim responded, “that would be a world that would be better for Mozilla.”

The remaining question is: how can Mozilla bridges the gap between now and the moment this new world unfolds?

2024 Financial State of Mozilla

According to the Mozilla 2024 Financial [6] roadmap by Eric Muhlheim & Angela Plohman, the Chief Financial Officer & Chief Operating Officer of the Mozilla Corporation , this are the key focus for the company in the following years:

Investing in Core Products: Firefox will continue to evolve and improve. We will focus on improvements, particularly in mobile while ensuring a seamless and empowering user experience across our ecosystem.

Privacy-First Advertising: Driving innovation in privacy-preserving advertising through Anonym and Mozilla Ads to create a new and sustainable revenue source independent from search.

AI Innovation: Scaling projects like Pulsar and Orbit that deliver responsible, user-centric AI solutions.

Privacy First Advertising

Advertising appears to be Mozilla’s preferred strategy for revenue diversification. The company has shown strong interest in this area and is actively exploring ways to increase ad revenues while remaining aligned with its user privacy guidelines.

In 2024, Mozilla acquired Anonym [7], a company founded by former Meta executives that develops digital advertising tools that don’t rely on leaking user‑level data. Its core tech:

• Secure data matching environments where encrypted datasets from advertisers and platforms are combined without exposing individual user identifiers.
• Use of differential privacy, which adds statistical “noise” to analytics to prevent user‑deanonymization.

Mozilla is not alone in this pivot toward privacy-conscious advertising.

The Opera Model

Opera Software is a Norwegian tech company known for the Opera web browser, which offers built-in features such as a free VPN, ad blocker, and AI assistant. The company also develops Opera GX (for gamers) and Opera Mini (designed for low-data mobile use).

Opera faces similar constraints and market dynamics as Mozilla. According to Opera’s financial report for the first quarter of 2025 [8], advertising revenues accounted for approximately 67% of the company’s total revenue, while the remaining 33% came from search monetization. In Q4 2021 [9], search revenues made up 48% of total revenue, and advertising revenues accounted for roughly 50%.

This shift highlights a broader industry trend toward advertising as a primary revenue source, especially as regulatory and competitive pressures challenge the sustainability of search monetization models.

The field is changing and the battle is fierce

So far, we’ve focused only on the current state of the search and web browser market. However, this field is undergoing drastic changes. As I write this article, Perplexity, an AI-driven search engine known for providing direct, conversational answers instead of traditional link-based results, has launched Comet, its own web browser.

According to Aravind Srinivas, Perplexity’s co-founder and CEO, this change was prompted by Google Chrome’s refusal to promote Perplexity as a default feature. This move signals a growing convergence between search and browsing, with emerging players like Perplexity aiming to redefine how users interact with the web, placing generative AI at the core of both discovery and navigation.

AI is at the center of Mozilla’s attention, and the organization has committed $30 million in 2023 to launch Mozilla.ai, a startup aimed at making open-source AI accessible and successful among developers and hobbyists. The company is still in an early, pre-revenue stage, focused on recruiting talent and developing exploratory projects [6].

Closing note

It is still too early to tell what it will become, but the way we access the web and browse information is evolving rapidly. Thanks to advancements in AI and recent antitrust rulings, a new landscape is beginning to take shape. I genuinely hope that players like Mozilla succeed, and I will be keeping a close eye on what the future holds.